Team Fetterman Strategy Update on New Polling
The following is a campaign strategy update from Data for Progress for Team Fetterman about a poll out in Pennsylvania.
This morning, NBC reported on a brand new poll in Pennsylvania — the first public poll of the 2022 U.S. Senate race. What we see in this poll is that Lt. Governor John Fetterman is well ahead in the race to become the Democratic nominee with 40% of the likely vote.
But we also see something much more important in these numbers, which is that Lt. Governor Fetterman is the only candidate who is leading in all general election matchups against the Republicans in this race.
In the following strategy memo, we’ll outline why Lt. Governor Fetterman is so well positioned to win a general election, and why the stakes are so high for the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania.
Democratic Primary Poll
Eleven Democratic candidates have filed to run for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania. The poll out today shows Lt. Governor Fetterman off to a strong start compared to major candidates in the race or expected to join the race:
This result is not entirely surprising because the Lt. Governor enjoys broad support across the entire state of Pennsylvania — from urban to suburban and rural areas.
General Election Poll
The poll took a look at two top declared Pennsylvania Senate candidates from the Republican Party, Jeff Bartos and Sean Parnell. Data for Progress polled the top two prospective candidates for the Democratic nomination and found that Lt. Governor Fetterman was the only Democrat to defeat both Republicans in a hypothetical matchup.
Data For Progress Poll — From May 7 to 14, 2021
The margin of error is ±4 percentage points.
Strong With Independents
Compared to other Democratic candidates, Lt. Governor Fetterman stands out with strong polling in general election matchups because of his relative strength with independent voters in addition to the Democratic base.
Independents:
Fetterman 46 (+19)
Bartos 27
Fetterman 51 (+25)
Parnell 26
Lamb 33 (+1)
Bartos 32
Lamb 29 (-8)
Parnell 37
Strong in Western Pennsylvania
We also know that Lt. Gov Fetterman performs particularly well in Western Pennsylvania from past statewide election results.
Status of the Race: Toss Up
Larry Sabato’s race ratings currently have Pennsylvania marked as the only true toss-up race on the 2022 map.
With control of the Senate at 50–50 and hanging in the balance, Pennsylvania will be one of, if not the most, important swing state races in the country.
Last time this seat was up in 2016, it was the most expensive Senate race in the country. Candidates spent nearly $53 million and outside groups spent an additional almost $127 million. In the end, Republican Sen. Pat Toomey won.
Conclusions
The new Data for Progress poll confirms what Team Fetterman has maintained from the beginning of this campaign: Lt. Governor John Fetterman is the best shot we have to win the state of Pennsylvania. He’s a candidate who can uniquely turn out more voters than any other across all of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties.
- Leading the primary: Fetterman leads in the Democratic Primary by a wide margin.
- Electable in the general: Fetterman is the only candidate to defeat every Republican in hypothetical general election matchups. Other candidates either lose or are within the margin of error.
- Strong with independents: Fetterman polls strongly with independent and third party voters who don’t align with either the Democrats or Republicans
- Strong in all parts of the state: While Democrats historically perform better in Eastern Pennsylvania, Fetterman has a track record of turning out the vote in Western Pennsylvania. He can compete in all 67 counties.
- PA is the only toss-up: This is a must-win race for Democrats if we want to hold or expand our majority in the Senate.
